Учебное пособие Москва 2008 Содержание Введение. Анализ и прогноз долгосрочных тенденций экономического роста в стране и мире основа разработки экономической политики. 3 Раздел 1 Закономерности и показатели экономического роста 6

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33 World Population Prospects. – N.Y., U.N., 2006. http://esa.un.org/unpp/

34 Международная общественная организация, основанная в 1968г. с целью привлечения внимания мирового сообщества к глобальным проблемам человечества.

35 How to deal with a falling population. – The Economist, L., 2007, July 28, p. 13.

36 National Accounts of OECD countries. – Paris, OECD, 1970- 2005. Statistical Yearbook. – N.Y., UN, 2007.

37

38 Wolf M. Sustaining growth is the century’s big challenge. – Financial Times. L., 2008, June

39 United Nations Human Development Report. Fighting Climate Change: Human solidarity in a divided world. – Wash., UN, 2007/2008

40 The Growth Report. Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development. - Washington, The World Bank, 2008, р. 86.

41 Ibid., p. 87.

42 International Energy Outlook 2008. – Washington, EIA U.S Government, 2008, June

43 The Growth Report. Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development. - Washington, The World Bank, 2008, р. 88.

44 Ibid.

45 Sachs J. D. Comments to Wolf M. Sustaining growth in the century’s big challenge. – Financial Times, L., 2008, June 11^th.

46 The Growth Report. Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development. - Washington, The World Bank, 2008, p. 87.

47 Wolf M. Sustaining growth is the century’s big challenge. – Financial Times. L., 2008, June 10

48 How to deal with a falling population. – The Economist, L., 2007, July 28, p. 13.

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53 World Population Prospects. – N.Y., U.N., 2006. http://esa.un.org/unpp/

54 World Population Prospects. – N.Y., U.N., 2006. http://esa.un.org/unpp/

55 The Growth Report. Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development. - Washington, The World Bank, 2008, р. 99.

56 OECD Factbook 2007. – Paris, OECD, 2007, Public and private education expenditure.

57 Barro R.J., Lee J.W. International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications. – Cambridge (Mass.), CID, 2000, Working Paper N 42.

58 Surprise, the world is winning its fight against poverty. – The Economist print edition, L., 2007, July 6th

59 OECD Factbook 2007. – Paris, OECD, 2007, Expenditure on R&D.

60 OECD Factbook 2007. – Paris, OECD, 2007, Social expenditure.

61 Mitchell W.C. Business Cycles. The Problem and Its Setting. – N.Y., NBER, 1930, p. 416.

62 Мизес Л. фон Человеческая деятельность. Трактат по экономической теории. – М., Экономика, 2000, с. 817.

63 World Data. Long-term Forecasts on EIU Country Data and Market Indicators & Forecasts.

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64 Фактами в экономической науке называют результаты статистических наблюдений, а стилизованными фактами – основанные на систематических наблюдениях эмпирические обобщения, касающиеся свойств и динамики экономических переменных, которые еще предстоит объяснить теоретически.

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66 Economic Report of the President. – Washington, United States Government Printing Office, 2007, p. 288.

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69 Survey of Current Business. – Washington, 2005, N 9, p. 51, 57.

70 Surprise, the world is winning its fight against poverty. – The Economist print edition, L., 2007, July 6^th.

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72 OECD Factbook 2007. – Paris, OECD, 2007, Real GDP Growth.

73 Рассчитано на базе: Kristensen T. Development in Rich and Poor Countries. – N.Y., Praeger, 1974, p. 27.

74 Рассчитано на базе Мировая экономика: прогноз до 2020. Ред. Дынкин А.А. – М., Магистр, 2007, с. 399.

75 Poncet S. The Long Term Growth Prospects of the World Economy: Horizon 2050. – Paris, CEPII, 2006, Working Paper N 16, p. 64-65. http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/workpap/summaries/2006/wp06-16.htm

76 Wilson D., Parashothaman R. Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050. – N.Y., Goldman Sachs, 2003, Global Economics Paper N 99, p. 5-6.

77 Poddar T., Yi E. India’s Rising Potential. – N.Y., Goldman Sachs, 2007, Global Economics Paper N 152, p. 5.

78 Wilson D., Parashothaman R. Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050. – N.Y., Goldman Sachs, 2003, Global Economics Paper N 99, p. 5-6.

79 Мировая экономика: прогноз до 2020. Ред. Дынкин А.А. – М., Магистр, 2007, с. 356-357, 403-404.

80 Клинов В.Г. Экономическая конъюнктура. Факторы и механизмы формирования. – М, Экономика, 2005, с. 87.

81 Surprise, the world is winning its fight against poverty. – The Economist print edition, L., 2007, July 6th

82 Ibid.

83 World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050. Global Perspective Studies Unit. -. Rome, FAO, 2006. P. 8. http//www.fao.org

84 Международные экономические отношения. Ред. Ливенцев Н.Н. - М., Проспект, 2005, с. 81.

85 Blas J. Long period of rising food prices forecast. – Financial Times, L., 2008, January 21^st.

86 The Growth Report. Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development. - Washington, The World Bank, 2008, p. 19.

87 Wolf M. Food crisis is a chance to reform global agriculture. – Financial Times, L., 2008, April 29^th.

88 Международные экономические отношения. Ред. Ливенцев Н.Н. - М., Проспект, 2005, с. 86.

89 www.usinfo.state.gov, 2008, June 3^rd.

90The next green revolution. – The Economist print edition, L., February 21st

91Wolf M. Food crisis is a chance reform global agriculture. – Financial Times, L., 2008, April 29^th.

92Ibid.

93 Bounds A. EU scientists query bloc’s biofuel strategy. –Financial Times, L., 2008, January 17.

94 Международные экономические отношения. Ред. Ливенцев Н.Н. - М., Проспект, 2005, с. 85.

95 Wolf M. The market sets high oil prices to tell us what to do. – Financial Times, L., 2008, May 13^th.

96 Ibid.

97 Ibid.

98 Ibid.

99 Ibid

100 International Financial Statictics Yearbook. – Wash., 2000-2007; Financial Times, L., 2008, May 13^th.

101 График из доклада М.Хубберта «Ядерная энергия и ископаемое топливо» (Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels), 1956г.

102 Mahtani D. Oil watching reworks reserves forecasts. – Financial Times, L., 2007, December 27^th.

103World Economic Outlook. - Washington., International Monetary Fund, 2007, April. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/01

104 More heat than light. – The Economist print edition, 2007, May 24^th.

105 International Energy Outlook 2008. – Washington, EIA U.S Government, 2008, June.

106 Клинов В.Г. Экономическая конъюнктура. Факторы и механизмы формирования. – М, Экономика, 2005, с. 82-95. Международные экономические отношения. Ред. Ливенцев Н.Н. - М., Проспект, 2005, с. 105-120.

107 Hawkswarth J. The World in 2050: How big the major emerging market economies get and how can the OECD compete? – PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2006. www.rhsmith.umd.edu/ciber/pdfs_docs/size_of_emerging_economics_march_2006.pdf